Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
F9 3476 · GRR → MCO
departs 1:38 PM ET · arrives 4:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
GRR is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.