Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3494 LANDED 7:33 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

F9 3494 · LAS → IAD

took off 12:36 AM PT · landed 7:33 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3494 · LAS → IAD

Odds over time