F9 3767 · RIC → MCO

departs 5:47 PM ET · arrives 8:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at RIC that day

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3767 · RIC → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?