F9 3838 · OAK → LAS

departs 6:46 PM PT · arrives 8:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3838 · OAK → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?