F9 3980 · TPA → SJU

departs 8:46 PM ET · arrives 12:07 AM AT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TPA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SJU (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3980 · TPA → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?