Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4169 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:29 PM ET, ETA 2:31 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

F9 4169 · PHL → MCO

took off 12:29 PM ET · expected to land 2:31 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4169 · PHL → MCO

Odds over time