Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
F9 4781 · PHL → MSY
departs 5:15 PM ET · arrives 7:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 333 ft forecast at PHL that day
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.