Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 9158 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:07 PM ET, ETA 8:36 PM AT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

F9 9158 · MCO → BQN

took off 6:07 PM ET · expected to land 8:36 PM AT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BQN more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Thunderstorms forecast at BQN that day

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.67 in

BQN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 9158 · MCO → BQN

Odds over time