G4 1234 · SFB → TVC

departs 8:35 AM ET · arrives 11:33 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TVC?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SFB that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from SFB are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.44 in

TVC (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1234 · SFB → TVC

Odds over time

How late will it get to TVC?