G4 1266 · TOL → SFB

departs 8:50 PM ET · arrives 11:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at SFB that day

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TOL

Weather at each end

TOL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1266 · TOL → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?