G4 2020 · SFB → TRI

took off 11:21 AM ET · landed 12:40 PM ET (scheduled 11:22 AM ET → 1:10 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at TRI more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TRI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SFB that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TRI

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.72 in

TRI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2020 · SFB → TRI

Odds over time

How late did it get to TRI?