G4 2846 · SFB → DSM

departs 8:17 AM ET · arrives 10:21 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from SFB are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.42 in

DSM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2846 · SFB → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?