Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
G4 2861 · PIA → SFB
departs 7:42 PM CT · arrives 11:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SFB that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIA
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PIA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.