Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
G4 2864 · SFB → MDT
departs 7:05 AM ET · arrives 9:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Thu 10/8 36%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MDT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDT?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
SFB is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from SFB are usually not late
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.44 in
MDT (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.