Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
G4 407 · JAX → IAD
departs 3:55 PM ET · arrives 5:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 1.10 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.