Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 414
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
G4 414 · JAX → CVG
departs 9:40 PM ET · arrives 11:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.07 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.