Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
G4 431 · DSM → EWR
departs 7:35 AM CT · arrives 11:05 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM
Weather at each end
DSM (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.