G4 457 · DSM → PIE

departs 2:19 PM CT · arrives 6:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIE?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AZA is prone to delays

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ DSM is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PIE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 457 · DSM → PIE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIE?