Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
G4 857 · MLI → PGD
departs 5:36 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at PGD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PGD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PGD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLI
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MLI (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
PGD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.