G7 4473 · IAD → RIC

departs 10:12 PM ET · arrives 11:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at IAD that day

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4473 · IAD → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?