G7 4511 · EWR → ILM

took off 9:26 PM ET · expected to land 10:37 PM ET (scheduled 9:17 PM ET → 11:19 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ILM?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 9pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

ILM (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4511 · EWR → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?