G7 4527 · IAD → STL

departs 5:52 PM ET · arrives 7:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4527 · IAD → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?