Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3358 LANDED 1:22 PM CT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 3358 · FSD → ORD

took off 12:19 PM CT · landed 1:22 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from FSD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at FSD that day

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3358 · FSD → ORD

Odds over time