MQ 3401 · BOS → BUF

departs 2:25 PM ET · arrives 4:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3401 · BOS → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?