MQ 3443 · ORD → ROC

departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 2:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Gusts to 29 kt forecast at ROC that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3443 · ORD → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?