MQ 3492 · ORD → CMI

departs 11:17 AM CT · arrives 12:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at CMI more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMI?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMI

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CMI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3492 · ORD → CMI

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMI?