Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3531 LANDED 1:33 PM CT, ~22 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 3531 · SYR → ORD

took off 12:53 PM ET · landed 1:33 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SYR (origin) Gusts35 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.05 in

ORD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3531 · SYR → ORD

Odds over time