Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3544 LANDED 4:51 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 3544 · PHX → TUL

took off 12:56 PM MT · landed 4:51 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3544 · PHX → TUL

Odds over time