Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3595 LANDED 11:51 AM CT, ~19 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 3595 · XNA → ORD

took off 10:33 AM CT · landed 11:51 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3595 · XNA → ORD

Odds over time