Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3649 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 3649 · TUS → PHX

departs 8:59 AM MT · arrives 9:37 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

Weather at each end

TUS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3649 · TUS → PHX

Odds over time