Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3771
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3771 · ORD → PVD
departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 5:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.