Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3775
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3775 · ROC → ORD
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 12:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.