Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3790
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
MQ 3790 · ORD → ATW
departs 11:00 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ATW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATW?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.