Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3857 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:55 AM CT, ETA 1:43 AM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 3857 · DFW → MAF

took off 12:55 AM CT · expected to land 1:43 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into MAF at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAF

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MAF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3857 · DFW → MAF

Odds over time