Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
MQ 3868 · DFW → JAN
departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 9:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at JAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAN?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.