MQ 3874 · ELP → PHX

departs 7:07 PM MT · arrives 7:41 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ ELP is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

ELP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3874 · ELP → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?