Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3886 LANDED 12:57 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 3886 · DFW → GSO

took off 9:54 AM CT · landed 12:57 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3886 · DFW → GSO

Odds over time