Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3890 LANDED 1:57 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 3890 · ORD → FSD

took off 12:46 PM CT · landed 1:57 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSD (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3890 · ORD → FSD

Odds over time