Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3948 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 3948 · ORD → ELP

departs 9:39 PM CT · arrives 11:24 PM MT

Your aircraft is N233NN (E170), coming in as MQ 3683 from BGR: landed 7:34 PM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into ELP at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3948 · ORD → ELP

Odds over time