MQ 3961 · SDF → BOS

departs 6:18 PM ET · arrives 8:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3961 · SDF → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?