MQ 4014 · MRY → PHX

took off 4:20 PM PT · landed 5:49 PM MT (scheduled 4:14 PM PT → 6:17 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at MRY that day

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4014 · MRY → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?