Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4023
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
MQ 4023 · PNS → ORD
departs 3:15 PM CT · arrives 6:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at PNS that day
↑
3pm departures from PNS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PNS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.69 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.