Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4094
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 4094 · CVG → ORD
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 6:32 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
CVG is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.