Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4102 LANDED 12:28 PM CT, ~19 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

MQ 4102 · DEN → ORD

took off 9:35 AM MT · landed 12:28 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4102 · DEN → ORD

Odds over time