Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4127 LANDED 1:30 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

MQ 4127 · DFW → HOU

took off 12:35 PM CT · landed 1:30 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ HOU is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4127 · DFW → HOU

Odds over time