Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4185 LANDED 12:17 PM CST, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 4185 · DFW → AGU

took off 11:23 AM CT · landed 12:17 PM CST (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at AGU more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AGU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4185 · DFW → AGU

Odds over time