Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4230 LANDED 4:30 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 4230 · DFW → TRI

took off 1:45 PM CT · landed 4:30 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at TRI more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TRI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4230 · DFW → TRI

Odds over time