MQ 4251 · ORD → FSD

departs 11:05 PM CT · arrives 12:58 AM CT

Your aircraft is N765ST (E170), coming in as MQ 3458 from CID: landed 9:11 PM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into FSD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSD (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4251 · ORD → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?