Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4293
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
MQ 4293 · CAE → ORD
departs 6:06 AM ET · arrives 7:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at CAE that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from CAE are usually not late
Weather at each end
CAE (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.24 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.