Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4307 LANDED 1:53 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MQ 4307 · ORD → TVC

took off 12:10 PM CT · landed 1:53 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ TVC is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TVC (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4307 · ORD → TVC

Odds over time